THIS IS MY 90TH BLOG ON UNDERSTANDING MONEY TOOLS
In this blog we are going to recap several things going on
in the international scope of money and investing that has come across to
me.
Again today, March 1st, 2016, the DOW continues
to rise. Almost every money manager and economist I follow refers to this as a
traded market with little reason for the market going up. I agree. Wall Street
knows how to make money off volatility taking the markets up then, bringing
them down. The only market they have a tough time making money in is a stagnant
market. Another trick Wall Street firms have always used is to unload their
“in-house” stock onto the public. Firms don’t like to lose money! If they have been a market maker for a
company looking unfavorable, and most likely hold stock in that company, they
may be selling it out into the public. Be careful. It has been quite common for
a Wall Street firm to issue a “buy” recommendation on a stock knowing all too
well it isn’t a good buy, just to unload their position. (Investment banks and commercial banks
are typical of over paid “extractionists” of society, producing nothing of
value….I think I will write a blog on the leaches of our society!)
Let’s hit oil briefly.
It ain’t going anywhere soon.
Iran is now pumping more oil, and the OPEC members aren’t holding
together. Supply and demand, common sense. There is no country that I know of in the world that is in
great financial shape. The US touts a grand economy, but it isn’t; it is an
election year! We just reported
that in the last decade we have not had years above 3% GDP which is a benchmark
for minimal growth and expansion.
Many of the oil producing countries are in tough shape with all the debt
borrowed on oil reserves. They can’t maintain payment on debt and bonds. Even the Saudis are now starting to get
nervous over the situation.
ZIRP and NIRP, what are these? ZIRP is the abbreviation of zero interest rate, and NIRP you
may have guessed is negative interest rates. Several countries have gone negative already to force
savings to flow out into investments.
Among these countries are Japan, the European Union, Denmark, Sweden and
Switzerland. Do I think this will
work, no. Quantitative easing
money never helped us grow as mentioned before with GDP, and negative interest
rates are not the answer either. The people who are really getting hurt the
most with negative interest rates are the elderly relying on fixed income from
CD’s and saving’s accounts to live on.
Even in the US Janet Yellen (Federal Reserve) has discussed the topic
with all presidents of our 12 Federal Reserve Banks. My feelings are the longer time we spend away from some sort
of common sense free market, supply and demand, the worse things are going to
get. The world can’t expect to grow
at the same multiple we have grown since the end of WWII. The biggest reason I can think of is
the typical middle class person is not having the expected growth rate we used
to base upon of 2.2 children per family. The poorest people on earth are the people
having the children. Unfortunately, this continues to be a financial drain on
the rest of us, not the buyers of goods and services.
One of the most dangerous elements of negative interest
rates is the worldwide financial projections being thrown for a loop. Corporate pensions, whole life
insurance policies including annuities, ERISA retirement plans and much more
are projected on historical returns between 6 and 8% annual returns. We may not see those returns for years
to come. This is going to have a
profound result on demographics, lifestyles and retirement.
Stock investments.
As interest rates stay low even the elderly are taking more of a risk
entering the equity markets to make some return on investment. The only suggestion I might render is
to look internationally, try to find solid companies with P/E’s around 10:1 or
below and are paying a historically high yield. Even though these yields are not guaranteed in the future it
might be the best bet for investment. The US equity markets are considered
lower risk, however are priced on the high side. Many municipal and various government bonds are going into
default. Just remember if it is too good to be true, it most likely is.
Gold. Gold is trading about $1230 per ounce today. Investors have been selling out of
their put options the past few weeks and buying calls. China again is a buyer
of gold to back their currency and strength. The recent high price hit about
$1265 per ounce, and will trade inversely to the stock market pricing, thus when
the markets rise like in the last week, the price of gold will weaken. Not a bad idea to diversify a bit in
the metal when the price falls.
Jobs. The job
market for college graduates and people over 45 is weak. A friend of mine attended a once a year,
week-long seminar on start up companies sponsored by Chase Bank and JP
Morgan. Of course, the bankers
didn’t do this out of their kind hearts but in hopes that if any new company
can make some money they will use Chase as their bank, and perhaps JP Morgan
for an IPO (Initial Public Offering) when, and if, the time arises. Banks still won’t lend money, however
they come up with suggestions like “crowd funding” and the use of EB5 programs,
perhaps “angel money” from a venture capital firm. My friend who attended the seminars found the week
fascinating; truly is a new world order and one must think outside the
box. For instance, as a simplified
offshoot to Uber, there is a start-up for package delivery while you are on a
bicycle. While in transit on your bike, might as well check in with the company
on their app to see if a package could be delivered in route, and then you get
paid for it. As my friend put it,
there is a whole new “underground world” of business start-ups and ideas coming
to fruition.
The industries that maintain momentum continue to be
high-tech and medical. College
degrees? More and more colleges
are teaching on-line to make money, not for the purpose of a good education.
The practical applications are missing the target. I have a friend who has gone
back to get another degree on-line and all his courses are with team
participation. You know how that works out! With every team there are slackers. Another friend has gone back to school
in his 60’s to get a student loan of $1800 per month to help with living
expenses. Repayment of student loans is based upon your income so older people
using this “technique” most likely never intend to pay the loan of completely,
and the loans are at low interest rates!
Enough for one blog!
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