THIS IS MY 83RD BLOG ON UNDERSTANDING MONEY TOOLS
As I am in one of those moods to write, I thought I should
grab the opportunity and write about two things, the current stock market again
and world thoughts.
First, this morning (12/7/15) while in conversation with an
astute business friend he reminded me that we are in a “New World Order” when
it comes to investment models and paradigms of value. There has been so much
money printed worldwide, that the old no longer holds true. In venture capital it is called “outs”,
with many stock investments it is last sucker out takes the fall. We used to invest in stocks, now we
gamble.
Let me cover a synopsis of some of the economic letters I
receive. The stock market values have stabilized at such highs something needs
to break. Perhaps Silicon Valley
has reached highs with the stocks we have mentioned before. One stock I didn’t
touch upon is Uber, $50 billion capitalization and wanting to borrow more
money, and no profits. It is a
great concept in a very socialized environment, however in the USA is it real?
Many people who sign up to be Uber drivers don’t realize they should contact
their auto insurance agent for extra coverage. They are now a “commercial driver”. I spoke with my insurance agent in
regard to Uber and Lift. Here is the scoop. When you as a driver pick up an Uber passenger the app
connect to Uber then insures for liability, but only for that drive. If you had
an accident while in service, your auto insurance company would most likely
deny collision insurance coverage on your car, and an injured passenger could
sue you and Uber or Lift up and above their liability policy. The business model is “nice” but should
it have much value, realistically no, it is just another service business with
no real assets. The other note
here is that the US is the most litigious country in the world. Don’t have any
doubts that a lawyer would go after you in an accident.
Some of these over-valued companies are taking their stock
to banks around San Francisco and pledging it for hard money debt. With this
money they are entering into building real estate. These stocks have no value except when there are buyers who
will pay a certain high price. If
that goes away there is no value, and I don’t want to see the middle class,
including myself, having to bail the banks out again. Bottom line Silicon
Valley in most senses has reached bizarre highs. We are entering a presidential election year so be very wary
of what the media and government puts out; same goes for Wall Street. What
should happen? Weakening,
unfortunately and perhaps recession in 2016. If the Federal Reserve raises rates, a stronger dollar
increases the likelihood of recession.
A lot of pressure is being placed on the Feds to raise interest rates to
help the elderly with bank savings accounts, and because we haven’t raised
rates in many years. The US sold
about $20 billion in short term, 3 month, bonds at a zero interest rate in
October, however the longer-term rates are higher expecting an interest rate
hike or inflation. The 30 year mortgage rates went up about 15 basis points
some time back expecting the Fed to raise rates, however whatever happens the
rates may come down slightly again. Higher rates hurt home sales and the
economy.
China is printing more money, same with the European Union
while dropping interest rates.
That alone could push us into recession. What compounds this being very
real is many countries are going to negative interest rates for investors to
warehouse money. If the Federal
Reserve raises interest rates, I believe it is only a matter of time and it
will be forced to lower rates; perhaps start printing money again.
We should see money in the stock market seeking stable
quality blue chip companies, thus large cap stocks with solid assets should
outperform smaller capitalized stocks.
Risky bonds and emerging country bonds should be hit hard.
Employment numbers were pretty good, unemployment stated at
5%. October manufacturing also looked pretty good. A closer look tells us employment
may be part time with the average work week at 34 hours, a long ways from a
normal 40 hours, and no benefits.
October’s build up of inventories most likely is attributable to the
expected Christmas and Holiday buying. We will see if manufacturers can unload
product. Higher paying jobs accounted for very little. Again, look at the entire economic
picture, not what the government presents.
As mentioned before, I communicate daily with some pretty
healthy minded people on various topics. I thought I would relate some of it
through this blog, although I am not sure how it pertains to Understanding
Money Tools. Perhaps it can be used to think ahead with economies and
industries that may be the best for jobs and more. Much of this is my personal opinion, your thoughts may
differ greatly.
We start with what is current and on so many minds, the
worldwide immigration mess. We took out the “queen bees” in several Middle East
countries and the bees have flown, long-range outcome not determined or well thought
out. We all know some of these countries being Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and
Syria. The long-term financial
obligations are astronomical. These cultural changes especially in Europe, and
to some degree here, will offer opportunities, such as in the health care and
pharmaceutical industries. Those industries have to love this as many of the
immigrants have diseases and are sick; this includes a high degree of mental
illness and stress. Another employment opportunity will be in the education,
training and teaching arenas including languages for these people.
I don’t want this blog to go on too long, but I will comment
further. We’ve made some poor decisions especially over the last 15 years that
appear there is no recovery from. The four countries I mentioned above from the
Middle East had dictators, but that has always been their custom. They were all
contained countries in “no fly zones”.
To me it seems that no political figure in this county who makes decisions
on foreign matters has ever been educated on history, prior to making
monumental world decisions. Everything boils down to “cause and effect”.
Permit me to explain.
There have been several “empires” during the past 2500 years, some being
(according to Google):
-Greek Empire-800BC to 600AD
-Roman Empire-753BC to 27BC and then 64AD to 1453AD, the
strongest being in 117AD
-Spanish Empire-1492-1800’s
-English Empire-1851-after WWI, by 1922 it controlled over
1/5 of the world’s population
-French Empire-1804-1815 and then 1852-after WWII
The commonalities for each Empire’s failure was the same,
these being hegemony, power, greed, imperialism, expansionism, multi-cultural,
lack of unity and nationalism, high taxation, and more negatives. Apparently, and unfortunately, this is
human nature. Economically, there
is normally an inverse relationship between taxation and growth and the welfare
of a country (today we measure it in terms like gross domestic product). Most
of these Empires, toward the end, taxed the hell out of the people. All the money went to the kings, queens
and royalty; no such thing as sharing for the betterment of the masses. Not much has changed over the last 2500
years, has it!?
America has followed many of the same mistakes. Major mistakes were made by politicians
after two big wars, WWI and WWII.
Stupid decisions were made in the many of the Middle Eastern areas
dividing countries the way “Western Powers” wanted them divided, but made no
practical sense based upon tribal cultures, languages, and religions. For instance, we divided out Iraq into
one country when you had three distinct tribes that were basically at war for
years. Iraq should have been divided into three areas or countries.
We see the power and greed in the Middle East over oil and
gas. We watch the various controls and power plays in this area, one being the
Syria–Iran-Iraq pipeline. Another
is a pipeline from Qatar to Turkey. Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, is on the board of
directors of the Ukrainian gas company (Burisma Holdings) to help secure oil
and gas rights for US companies. Trace a lot of Ukraine’s problems back to US
major international companies like Monsanto, Dupont and Cargill well positioned
in the 8th largest agricultural country in the world. Our hegemony
is played out all over the world.
I hope you find some of this information of interest.
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