THIS IS MY 186TH BLOG ON UNDERSTANDING MONEY
TOOLS
March, 2020
Several friends have called me having a discussion as to my
thoughts on various fronts. In
light of this, I thought I would write a blog/chapter.
Tumultuous times; Coronavirus, interest rates, bonds, stock
markets. Let’s discuss all of
these as they are interconnected.
Coronavirus: I
am certainly not a doctor, but read about the virus as you do. A person I follow on editorials is Dr.
Paul Craig Roberts. Dr. Roberts
was appointed by President Reagan as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for
Economic Policy. In a recent
article he recaptures an interview with Francis Boyle who drafted the US
Implementation Law of Biological Weapons Convention. This is associated with the years 1972 and 1989. According to Francis Boyle we and other
nations are in violation of the Convention and the US has spent over $100
billion since 2001 on “dirty warfare”.
We now employ over 13,000 people in 400 labs around the US creating
viruses that are not curable.
Regarding the Coronavirus perhaps “the rabbit got out of the hatch”
either here or in China? Would it
have been to hurt economies?
In 2009 during the “Great Recession” we had the H1-N1 Swine
Influenza virus; 10,000 Americans died.
We have forgotten that and the Zika and Polio viruses in the 1950s. This Coronavirus is more easily
contracted, and can have long-term negative affects to the lungs.
We now have an economy in a worldwide, strong “correction”
mode.
I can make certain assumptions regarding the
Coronavirus. Because of the
severity of the impact on mankind and disruptions it will take a long time for
us to fully recover, even if a vaccine is found in the near future. Fear has always been a stronger emotion
than greed therefore, economically it has impeded growth of all economies and
has and will have a huge impact.
This includes buying habits such as going out for dinners,
entertainment, shopping as well as large purchases. It will also have a bearing on investments and the types of
investments.
Interest Rates:
In the last two weeks Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve,
has dropped interest rates down to a benchmark of 0% to .25% interest, (zero to
25 basis points). This means that the most popular bond, the 10 year Treasury
bond, may go lower as well as the 30 year bond. Ironically, on March 13th
the 10 year bond yield was .5% and on March 18th it was 1.13%. Perhaps people are looking at the weak
US economy and therefore wanting a higher interest/yield rate. There is such a demand for “risk
free/low risk” investment like government insured investments and money markets
that we can offer these with no, or little, return on investment. We may even go negative as some of the
other G-8 countries. It is usually
about supply and demand.
Let’s go for some question/answers: (Approach this section as if “you” are
asking me the questions.)
- Question: Federal Reserve interest rates have
dropped. Will this have an effect
on all loans?
- Answer: It should on most loans that are
commercial based such as loans from banks. The “spread” between institutions borrowing money and
lending of money has just become larger.
This should adjust. Risk of
a loan must always be considered, whether or not there is collateral or
good/poor credit.
- Question: What is a bond?
- Answer: Quite simply, an “IOU”.
- Question: Is there risk on a country’s bond?
- Answer: Yes, but if a country has a strong
economy like the G-8 countries there is little risk. The US dollar remains strong even with the printing of new money and
borrowing/debt.
- Question: It appears that the Coronavirus has
really depressed the stock market, is this the only factor?
- Answer: The Coronavirus only tossed gasoline
onto the fire! If you look at the
4 parts of a business cycle (growth, peak, correction and trough) we were only
held at the peak because of the government putting in “insane” amounts of money
holding the peak at a high. We, in
a “free market” economy, were already in a correction portion of the cycle.
- Question: Where do you see the bond market going?
- Answer: To negative interest rates like other
countries.
- Question: Where do you see the stock markets
heading, and a trough?
- Answer: Tough question. In a free market the DOW Jones Average
should have topped at a price to earnings ratio of about 17 to 1. Because of government intervention and
promotion of the markets it went over 30 to 1. What does this mean?
Simply put the DOW should have peaked around 16,000 instead of 30,000,
that would still equate to 20% over what the norm was. The NASDAQ is also way overpriced.
- Question: Why were the stock markets able to
reach irrational highs like in 1929 and 1999?
- Answer: Greed for one. Two, would be the government, banks and
corporations buying stock. Through
these vehicles the government has pumped trillions of dollars into a false economy
since The Great Recession.
- Question: Where do you see the DOW going? It is around 21,000 now. (March 18)
- Answer: Down, unless the government keeps
replacing the private sector money leaving the stock markets. Let’s be realistic here. The 125 year average for the DOW is 14
or 15 to 1, (14:1) based upon earnings.
Investing should be based on earnings not gambling! Americans have used the stock markets
the past 10 years as their own ATM machines pumping out annualized returns of
12% or more. This is crazy and
unrealistic. Free market theorists
like Adam Smith, Milton Friedman and Friedrich von Hayek would all be turning
in their graves if they could see what is going on in our socialistic/fascist
society!
- Question: What do you mean by stating “government
intervention”?
- Answer: Let’s take a look. Since 2010 the government has pumped trillions
of dollars “somehow” into the stock markets. Check your trading volatility. One day up, one day down. The down days are the days the private sector is exiting the
markets, the up days the government through the Feds and banks buying for
support. As an illustration on
March 16th it was public knowledge on the news that the government
was placing $150 billion into shoring up markets. On March 17th the government added another $500
billion and we had another rally in the stock market.
- Question:
Do you currently own stock?
- Answer: No. I am conservative.
Based upon what I mentioned above on investing according to earnings of
companies, the DOW should be at a reasonable pricing of about 14,000. I would have exited my stock holdings
in the DOW before it hit 16,000.
With the Coronavirus facing us and earnings definitely coming down, I
can see the DOW around 10,000 or less.
We have never, in my lifetime, seen a pandemic like this shutting down
most parts of the world, and its economy.
Another reason for not owning stocks the past few years is the
government insertion of money into the markets. To what degree are they willing to go and how many trillions
of dollars? I do not know, but
taking the risk on shorting the market is above my tolerance level.
- Question: Mr. Powell, Chairman of the Federal
Reserve, has stated along with our Treasury Department that they will do “all
that is necessary to stabilize and calm the markets”. What does he mean?
- Answer: Pump money into the banks, stock
markets and economy.
- Question: Were you ever heavily into the stock
markets?
- Answer: Yes, I had considerable money in the
markets, from the “penny markets” of the early 1980s to mostly conservative
investments in the 1990s as I grew older.
I am more a tangible type of investor so I placed most of my money into
things I controlled like oil and gas and real estate. You will find that most investors either like tangible
investments or stock markets.
Stock investors, for the most part, forget that buying a stock has zero
value if there are no investors to take them out of that stock. With oil and gas you have the oil in
the ground under your wells as long as you own the mineral rights, and in real
estate have land or rental property.
Working along with Wall Street and Securities for 20 years I was “well
connected”. I normally invested
with “reliable information” from “reliable sources”....that could be called
“insider information”. In 1992 I
retired for the most part. Then,
my stock analysis was different, and what yours might look like. First,
everything comes with a price. In
the 1990s I did make quite a bit of money in the stock market, but I spent
about 3 to 4 hours a day analyzing stocks. I do not invest on “momentum theory” nor typically on
companies that do not produce a profit.
- Question: What was your philosophy and strategy
on investing in stocks?
- Answer: In the 1990s and out of the investment
banking/corporate finance arena, I needed to get my own information and do my
own analysis. I subscribed to
about 3 of the most respected publications for stock analysis, and then did my
own work. Typically, I was a
“monthly trader” holding a solid company with the likelihood of something great
happening (like a medical patent approval or potential buyout) within a two
month period, and then selling, paying my short-term capital gains tax and
being happy with that. As a stock
moved up in price over my buying basis I would many times place a “stop loss”
on it or buy a few “put options” for a hedge. I balanced my portfolios between good funds and individual
stocks. In the late 1990s a Senior
VP of investments at a major bank said my portfolio was one of the best he ever
saw. Great, however then we had
the crash of 1999 and I lost about 40% of my money with Janus Funds. (Tom
Bailey, who started Janus Funds in 1969, and I worked together for Vail
Associates in the latter 1960s. I respected his analytical ability to a great
degree, therefore had a considerable amount of money in that fund.) I also lost a lot with the solid old
companies like Motorola and General Electric, which have since been
failures. Once you have a format
that works for you stick with it, don’t compromise in that. If your strategy is not making money
change it.
- Question: Did you, or do you invest in bonds?
- Answer: Yes. I always invested with top bond funds. The manager of the fund is what is most
important. If a manager leaves you
should also. When interest rates
were trending up like in 1978 to 1981 I went into “open bond funds” where they
were buying new bonds. When
interest rates trended down like about 1983 through the 1980s I bought “closed
bond funds” where they weren’t buying new bonds into the funds at lower yields. Today, with low interest rates I think
a person can do better waiting, then buying a quality stock with a low price to
earning ratio and paying a good dividend.
You hopefully will get a nice “kicker” from the stock price rising.
- Question: What is a “stop loss” and is it always
a sure bet?
- Answer: A stop loss is where you protect your
profit by placing a sell order in at a given price. Example: A stock is bought at $25/share. Your stock rises to $32/share and you
want to protect the downside. You
place a stop loss at $29/share. I
have done this many times and here are two ways you can lose. One, with the example above the stock
on a bad day slides down through $29/share and you are out, then the next day
the stock goes up to $34, but you no longer own the stock. The second way of losing is that some
really bad news comes out on the company and the stock slides quickly down to,
let’s say, $24/share, as there were no buyers until the stock reached that
level. (I got caught on that one
with Imclone medical stock.
Remember Martha Stewart got caught on insider trading because the CEO
tipped her off. She went to jail.)
- Question: Do you time the market? I have heard this isn’t wise.
- Answer: Most investment managers and planners
don’t want you to time the market primarily because “they” don’t want to lose
control of your money. It is wise
to time markets looking at trends or you give back the profit you made. I have told you that the market has
peaked and only fools would remain in the stock markets. A correction has to follow. Then, the unknown factor is the “trough”;
how far down it will go under a free market.
Additional Notes:
Here are some things to ponder.
If the government and large banks keep buying stock in the markets they
will become major shareholders and in control of corporations. The government through lending money to
the banks and regulations already control the investment banks, trust companies
and commercial banks.
With all the “shut downs” of cities and commercial
enterprises the government is talking about “giving” people money. How much? When could this happen? Will this money be taxed at the end of the year?
We have many things to resolve right now, and I suspect many
unforeseeable things will be forthcoming.
I think cash will be “king” for quite some time.
As with all my chapters/blogs, I hope you got something out
of this one.
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