Wednesday, April 10, 2019

MONEY 163 - LEARNINGS


THIS IS MY 163RD BLOG ON UNDERSTANDING MONEY TOOLS
April, 2019

My blogs are written with the premise that “it is far better to teach someone how to catch a fish, than give them a fish”.  We have all heard this from years past however America does not apply it well, all the way through to today’s teachings.  With my intentions it is to teach you practicalities in today’s business, give you hands on illustrations, render basic vocabularies in various industries, and most of all make you think!  There is another old saying: “I wish I knew then, what I know now”.  These blogs are meant to teach you to analyze better “now”, rather than viewing things superficially.  Perhaps it could save you a lot of time and money!

Let me point out how we have screwed up.  With myself, it was my basic public school education, grades 1 through 12, with learning from rote memorization, or repetitive learning, and little free-thinking permitted. At some point a good teacher needs to transfer memorized material into the practical that can be used, and associated with each day to attract the student’s interest.  I always wondered why a teacher should be teaching a subject when I didn’t think they were the best at a subject, and without free-thinking the subjects/topics were very boring to me.

As I state over and over, everything results from cause and effect.  Going back to my first statement that it is better to teach people how to catch fish, let’s show a prime example that exists today, from 150 years ago.  Let’s go to slavery and president Lincoln in the white house around 1861-65.  Quite complicated, however Lincoln believed that there should possibly be a re-colonization of the blacks, and included would be to send the black slaves back to their indigenous roots or a new colony.  Money was part of this solution, and also the problem as to why it did not happen.

Where am I going with this?  With post-emancipation the Caucasian white people never thought of teaching the African Americans/slaves how to be free, think on their own, and teach them how to make a good living. (How to catch their own fish!) We are paying for these downfalls today in society.  It will get worse with the financial separation between the upper classes and the lower class.

In parallels today, it is the shortsightedness of the wealthy with greed and greater separation of classes.  Right after WWII we did not have this and the middle class worker made a good income, no longer.  This problem will only grow in magnitude over the next few years and destroy our country.  I am afraid that either we correct the issues now, or our country will vote to change in favor of socialism.  That cannot benefit this country as we are already too far in debt to make socialism work satisfactorily.

In today’s education system, except for the schools in the wealthy communities, I see the same problems that have existed for years, and these kids are tomorrow’s leaders; ill prepared to take on the challenges.  Few people care, therefore constructive changes will not happen.

Now, let’s look at business.  We have not created many good companies the past 20 years, and become a service economy.  Investing has become gambling; so much money being tossed at mediocre product. It’s not just new companies and the stock markets.  Look at TV programs the last 20 years.  Except for the news there isn’t much on TV.  Most programs are designed for lower-middle IQ.  Music? In my eyes little great composed; perhaps the best coming out from our “”new” country western.  The medical industry has improved however at an exceptional cost to insurance companies and taxpayers.  Supposedly the $800 billion a year we spend on the defense budget has brought forth some nice, new shiny weapons for mass destruction!

To rationalize an investment in a company we have gone from a “bottom line”/pre-tax earnings analysis to a revenue based justification for investment; no need to “make money”. (Take a look at the companies on the NASDAQ.)  Few companies make the deans list these days.  Apple made the big come-back in the 1990s when Steve Jobs re-entered his company.  The problem with growth they are finding out is that not everyone needs a new I-Phone every year, nor a new computer, so they are trying to see if they can lure their 1.3 billion past customer base into other product lines.  Google is a winner.  Facebook, I gave as much hope for as the “pet rock”.  They are gathering and selling your private information, but as soon as you are totally sick of looking at your friend’s animals and children’s portraits they should be gone.  Twitter, etc.?

The company Lyft went public.  Going public is the only way to make big money.  It makes the insiders very wealthy, and immediately.  For today’s blog we are going to size this up.  Hopefully, you aren’t one of the buyers of Lyft stock.  Let me show you why.  Uber is watching and most likely will make an Initial Public Offering (IPO) in the not so distant future.  First to look at Lyft’s financial business composition.  Both Lyft and Uber run about the same in revenues and losses…not profits!  For every dollar in revenue both companies take in, they lose $.30, or 30% loss.  They say they are a “share ride” business thus a “green business” which sells to many a young person.  Is this really accurate?  I recently saw an ad for Uber drivers.  It was the picture of a young male “stud” standing next to a nice newer car.  The caption was drive for Uber guaranteed 300 trips of driving first month for $2100.  This perhaps attracted many new drivers.  Lyft will pay $2500, this includes tips.

Let’s look at it from a “green perspective”.  300 trips is a lot of driving, much, much more than a normal person would do; 10 hours a day, perhaps! So, this is not shared ride driving, but being a “cabbie”; there goes the “green” label.  Next, let’s look at it financially for the driver. If you take 300 trips of driving into $2100 it comes out to $7./trip.  Most drivers after expenses come out netting about $3.50/hour.  You’d be better off mowing lawns or shoveling snow up north.

You can rent a car to use from Uber as low as $269/month or use your own car.  The government states that it costs a person $.60/mile to drive a vehicle, amortizing all expenses into operating that vehicle such as gas, depreciation of vehicle, maintenance, insurance, etc.  In the case above with the Uber ad, if our average ride/trip is 10 miles that equates to 3000 miles per month, adjust for $.60/mile cost and that is $1800, that leaves you $300 profit. 

If you drive a year at this rate it is 36,000 miles per year.  Add into this your personal driving of perhaps 12,000 miles per year and you get 48,000 miles.  Cars essentially are worth nothing when they hit about 75-80,000 miles on the odometer.

In addition, one must remember that you need to add on “commercial” auto insurance to your personal policy for collision and extra liability up and beyond what Uber or Lyft cover.

Personally, I don’t ever see this business being economically viable for a business model.  Both companies are trying to eliminate the human driver, thus going driverless owning their vehicles.  Now, you go from a taxi cab format business, (and losing money), into the auto business.  With extra technology needed these driverless cars are going to be very expensive to operate per mile thus further lowering profitability.  Mass transit at a low cost that functions well and on a timely basis is the only thing that makes sense.

I hope you got some meaning out of this blog.  I am trying to get “you”, especially younger people, to “think” on your own through life and business entanglements.  It is inevitable that you will fail at times, but the object is to eliminate as many variables as possible.

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