THIS IS MY 123RD BLOG ON UNDERSTANIDING MONEY
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August 20, 2017
While walking with a friend last week he asked me questions
about economics covering inflation, deflation, depreciation, money….on and
on. I started covering these basic
topics and more and realized how little most people know, or perhaps care,
about how the system works. We’ll
talk about the basics of only one form, how we handle capitalism.
Basic supply side “Milty Friedman” economics is pretty
understandable until you get into the “uber” Keynesian economics we have become
intertwined in, and manipulation of money. Is it a false system? Yes. Has it been favoring the rich and select few? Yes. Has there been a greatly diminished middle class over the
past 50 years? Yes. Can the middle
class sustain down the road and carry the ball? I doubt it. In
light of this, number one you need to be aware and two, try to find ways around
the ever changing system in place.
The very first premise to understand is that capitalism
exists on the perception of scarcity.
People worldwide need to believe that there is scarcity. This scarcity
can be played as in the manipulation of food and potable water. Because of this theory, prices can be
set. Some industries limit
production to hold prices. Lets
take the auto industry for one. A
good example is Bugatti autos owned by Volkswagen. Every Bugatti is sold before it is produced. At prices between $1.5 and 2.5 they are
ordered and bought by the wealthy, many from the Middle East. They could produce more, but
don’t. Now with auto manufacturers
pumping out less expensive cars like Ford, Hyundai and General Motors we have
excesses all over the world.
Listening to advertisements on TV they can’t tell you sales are down
again this year. They have years
of supply on hand. Similar goes to
clothing, jewelry, etc. The
impression given is “get it while you can”, they are going fast and hot.
Next, let’s start with a short explanation of inflation and
deflation. We have covered so much of this topic in past blogs and in more
detail; you will need to refer to them.
With inflation things go up in value, deflation they go down,
depreciation (can be an accounting term)/devaluation things go down.
Devaluation is generally related to currencies. Why does our government want
things to go up? It is an
incentive for consumers to buy, manufacturing to spend on new equipment, etc.
Gross domestic product goes up supporting the strength of our dollar (Fiat
Currency) and profits are taxable.
Normal supply side economics is the healthiest in the long
term, and with this go the normal business cycles including recessions. These should happen every 6 years or
so. Sequentially this happens
through business growth (expansion), oversupply, stagnation (peak), downturn (contraction/recession), then
shake out….and over again. 9 years
now we have had tepid growth around 2% or less with no significant recession,
very unusual. Of course, the lack
of good growth needed in the 4-6% range cannot happen with our debt, as an
inverse relationship to growth, downsizing of companies, automation and so much
more. When was the last time the
government told you reality?
I have been very wrong on this last business cycle since
2008-9 and let me make assumptions why.
I could be wrong, but the facts stand. Our Federal Reserve Bank (Central Bank) intervened to what
“will” happen during the period 2008-9.
Getting back to the walk with my friend. He asked what the difference was between the
Bundesmark/Reichsmark hyperinflation in Germany in the 1930s and our government
printing $4 trillion in something referred to as Quantitative Easing measures
1, 2 and 3. The printing of a lot
of money in the 1930s destroyed Germany with inflation, how about us?
In understanding this I will use the expression “float”
which is used in stock market terms.
You can print all the money you want, however for it to be deleterious
to a system a couple things need to occur, these being that the newly printed
money needs to get into the hands of the general populous (middle class float)
and there needs to be circulation of money, or turnover (sometimes referred to
as “V” for velocity). In the case
of our $4 trillion Quantitative Easing money it was graciously handed out to
select banks so they could survive and meet capital requirements while many
went down. In July, 2017 there was
only $1.56 trillion US currency in circulation. Loans from private parties,
many middle and upper middle class people, were called and these assets sold to
wealthy investors at $.10 on the dollar.
Ask me how? I was one
losing a multi-million real estate project with two appraisals at $150 million
net dollars. 12% debt to equity!
No one would finance. Banks
could not lend as they were still under government controls. The very wealthy would lend, however
they wanted 30-35% interest, and a percentage interest which doesn’t work. Two billionaires bought the loan.
In the investment banking arena I had many friends with
small regional firms and with big firms like Bear Sterns and Lehman Bros. Our
US government decided they should no longer exist. Unfortunately, “Anti-trust”, was pushed to the wayside. So this was the new free market! Corrupt as hell. Big business and big banks getting
bigger. Ever since President
Reagan and the 1986 Tax Reform Act every president crushed the Anti-trust Act,
would have prevented many of these happenings. The “big boys” got their
way! A select few control the
masses!
Continuing on, why no major inflation? We explained above
that printed money did not make it into the hands of the general public. The government reports stats the
way they want (they manipulate or change accounting principles
constantly). If inflation were
stated accurately they would have to adjust standard of living indexes like social
security. The government wouldn’t’
want to pay out more money and increase national debt. (Indexed Social security
has risen only 2% over the past 10 years as an example, really penalizing older
people.) Older people should be
buying fixed instruments that are safe as in certificates of deposits (CD’s)
from banks and A rated bonds. They
have yielded nothing in terms of interest rate.
What did big business and the wealthy do with this “almost
interest free” money the past 9 years?
Big business borrowed money and issued corporate bonds. With this action companies have
increased their debt about 30%.
What happens when they do this?
This decreases their stock
“float” thus increasing control of their stock. This is referred to as wise “leverage”.
They hope to return more on the borrowed money than what they are paying back
to banks.
What did the wealthy do with their borrowed money? They increased their stock holdings in
all these big companies. Today,
the wealthiest 1% control between 83% and 87% or all corporate stock. That said, they can manipulate the
stock markets. The DOW and S&P
Markets have been overpriced for 2-3 years now and keep going up. I believe the money still coming in is
from suckers, and at some point a major correction is bound to happen. In advance of a significant downturn,
the investment banks and wealthy will have established sound “short positions”
in the markets. They don’t gamble,
they control!
The stock markets have gone up 20% this year under President
Trump; perception of things to come, not reality, makes this kind of move.
One final observation and then I will end. The government reports that debt is not
out of control. US debt has now
gone over $20 trillion. We
are second in personal debt to GDP
(perhaps first); Japan taking honors in this department. Here is the catch. In 2008-2010 many people lost their
homes and assets. These assets
mainly ended up in the hands of the top 1% wealthy. Today, many people are renting apartments and leasing autos.
(Auto debt now $1.3 trillion and a fairly high default percentage.) This monthly financial obligation
is not included anywhere on government calculations of personal debt to GDP!
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