Thursday, May 11, 2017

MONEY 117 - RETAIL


THIS IS MY 117TH BLOG ON UNDERSTANDING MONEY TOOLS

I have been analyzing one large national retail company. For obvious reasons I cannot mention the name nor the industry but would like to cover a few salient points that I believe are typical of large companies and why they are failing.  Once a company is a publicly traded entity it is very important to have a good financial public relations firm behind it.  Propaganda machines!  Is what you hear and read in the news and reports the real deal?  I doubt it.

I am going to leave financing out of this analysis as we have discussed it many times before and how Governmental Accounting Practices (GAP) has changed.  With this particular company I am finding a mess, and most likely very typical of old companies that have grown through acquisitions of other companies.

Here is what we have:
-       A company that has expanded over the past 75 years in an industry that has been relatively hot with solid profit margins of around 35%. They retail, but not manufacture product, much company product from China.  Now, the demographic market is aging, industry rapidly changing, thus will product be in demand or growing in 10-15 years?  I question it.
-       The company has thousands of US stores and inventory that is disorganized.  Example:  Corporate has printouts for each store and inventory, however actual annual inventory is done manually by low paid employees without the aid of scanners.  How do you really know the value of assets and inventory on hand?  You don’t.  Grocery stores are noted for being able to control inventory count pretty well.  Many times they outsource this to private companies, and we have all seen these people in isles along with laptop computers on carts and hand held scanners.  Much better.  Most retailers have to hire minimum wage people, many never graduated from high school let alone went to college.  Therefore, inventory needs to be controlled accurately and in a simple manner. 
-       Employees. This company I speak of has a high turnover of employees, not unusual for minimum wage jobs.  Make a corporate rule that to educate the average employee it should not take more than 2 days.  Training, systems, work and expectations need to be set to the lower degree for these employees.  Employees are like a chain, no stronger than the weakest link. Management can have a different standard and are paid more.
-       Identification of inventory.  The company I refer to, like many retailers, runs a back room inventory of 40-60% of total retail space.  Shipments normally come in from a distribution or hub centers located close to major airports or rail stations 1 to 3 times a day.   Inventory areas need to be well marked and easily assessable to employees.  The company I am analyzing has nothing marked and could take the average employee months to learn where product is stored, inefficient and with inefficiencies come costly errors.  Within each product area items are assigned according to number, or worse, hand written identification numbers. In the real world, do you think a minimum paid employee cares where things go?  No.  Companies need to use signage for all product spelled out and understandable for both the customer out front and the employees in the back room. Access to back room inventory can go 10 feet high on shelves.  This company has no easy access to higher items, therefore cumbersome ladders block the isles.  Not all isles have these ladders so to get a part on an isle with no ladder it takes several minutes to wheel a ladder to another isle.
-       Software technology.  According to a few employees this company’s software is a nightmare; designed by idiots and updated regularly not communicating the updates with store employees and management.  Again, in setting up a well-run company use the 2 day rule for employees; keep it simple with a full understanding for your basic employee within 2 days of hiring. There are only a couple reasons people work these minimum wage jobs, they don’t have the mentality or education, or they are between better jobs and have their resumes on the street.  Management can have their own more complex supplemental system, and of course, user names and passwords.  I have experienced over and over companies expanding rapidly through acquisitions of other companies.  Before these companies close on a deal they truly need to look more carefully how they are going to integrate their software with the other company and its compatibility.  This was a nightmare in 2008-2009 when banks and investment firms were being merged.  Investment firms made useless trades and banks had accounts that were in chaos.
-       Security.  Security and theft is important for all retailers. Theft costs go right to the bottom line.  There are various kinds of theft including white collar crime, shoplifting, store break-ins and theft directly from the cash drawers.  Set up a system to remove excess cash from the cash drawers once a certain amount has been reached, let’s say $200, and place the money in a backroom safe until a trusted employees makes a bank deposit run or a security firm makes a pick up.  In the case of the company I am analyzing they have a relatively high theft rate.  Nationally they have phony cameras throughout stores, and yet have had many thefts.  Sophisticated thieves know a fake camera from a real monitored camera.  In this case, when a theft occurs they have no photos to give police nor can the police give photos to the news media.  A security camera system can start as low as $500-$1000 per store.  At a minimum have two cameras, one aimed at the entrance and another to cover the sales counters or isles; the money.  A few year’s ago I started two retail stores and we used ADT Security.  One store was broken into and robbed twice.  The thieves cut the main telephone land-line to the shopping center, not just our store.  Therefore they had free access. The thieves broke into and robbed most of the stores in the shopping center except for the big box stores that had more advanced systems in place. In this case, we and other retailers did not have a back up for ADT to work.  Lessons learned the costly way!
-       This company has a very dated check out system for customers with too many steps to take for employees, and extra paperwork in terms of receipts. This is frustrating for the employee and customer, thus costly to the company. Stay up to date with new equipment and systems.  Cash drawers should be locked except when making a sale.  A good cash drawer should be locked, and only available when a sale is made, by employee code or a key to unlock.
-       Management style.  Again, this section is addressing the company I am reviewing.  The company has an old fashion dictatorial style of management, one that leads to failure.  It is “do as we say”.  This includes no talking amongst employees at most times.  Employees need to have fun at work, too much time of the day is spent working not to have fun.  Companies should realize communication between employees brings new ideas and builds teamwork.  Happy employee’s attitudes rub off on customers.  Also, with a pleasant working environment employees respect management more and the corporation in general.  This company does not welcome employees commenting on how things might be improved.  Every employee could bring forth new constructive, creative ideas.  I could go on with this subject of management, but will restrain.  Good management realizes each employee has an integral role from the CEO to the janitor.  Each should be treated with the same respect.  Companies should learn from employees as they are the hands on, everyday people.  Give employees freedom, they should not be slaves.

I hope some of this information helps you in respect to starting a company or investing in one. The more time you spend in business, hopefully the more lessons you learn.  The main thing is that you take pre-emptive strikes to keep losses at a minimum and increasing bottom line.  The other point I am making with this blog is that you can make a mistake assuming because a company is publicly traded, large, nationally well advertised and appears great, that it is. 



MONEY 116 - BUSINESS


THIS IS MY 116TH BLOG ON UNDERSTANDING MONEY TOOLS

It has been quite some time since I wrote a blog, time to do so again.  Let’s call this business at hand.

So much has been happening in the world. I will address a few varied things in this blog.

Let’s start out with reality and financial values.  Most Americans don’t get attracted to and place as much value in country concerns and politics as other countries do such as Germany, Switzerland, Israel and others.  America and politicians talk as if we are a wealthy nation, however in reality if we look into it we are broke.  (As previously mentioned per capita we are the second most indebted country in the world, second only to Japan.)  Let the numbers speak.  Balance sheet debt, as most know, is roughly $20 trillion and we are now heading into asking for extensions to this debt. Recently an article boasted how much came into the Federal government from taxes, an all time high.  We were still off break-even by $500 billion.  With a direct relationship between debt and growth, we can’t grow more than about 2% and that is not going to cut it. First quarter GDP came in at an annualized rate of .7%.  How does President Trump plan to cut taxes without getting the USA into much further debt?  Can’t be done, and results will only be found way down the line.  I question if Congress will go along with much spending, especially on well-needed infrastructure repairs.  With off balance sheet debt and future obligations we owe about $100 plus trillion.  For simple math divide approximately 320 million Americans including children into these numbers.  The future obligations I mention above include such things as social security, government pensions, ongoing medical for military wounded, etc.  Corporate and individual tax cuts are only beneficial to the economy if the end results are that companies and individuals will take that money and spend it.  If they pay down debt, hoard the money or spend it outside the USA it has no beneficial value.

Regarding pensions I recently received an economic report showing viability of many pensions.  There are only two ways to maintain pension payouts, one is continued income from pension members and two is return on investment from pension managers. In both cases they are off about 50%.  Corporate pensions are in the same category, under-funded; Chicago and Puerto Rico are good examples of failures.

Goldman Sachs recently sent a member of the firm to Puerto Rico for restructure of debt, as Puerto Rico cannot declare normal bankruptcy. As Goldman Sachs was involved with Greece joining the European Union I am afraid the outcome might be similar; the wealthy Puerto Ricans get their money out, the poor can’t lose anything, the middle income people will have austere measures placed upon them and the country will have to sell off good assets to the wealthy around the world.

This blog is about understanding money.  Unlike years ago today’s business game has so many variables connected to it that it significantly limits your potential success.  I periodically walk with a friend and we discuss business.  I was amazed that many people don’t have a clue as to the real world of business.  That said, here are a few things to be apprised of:
-       You have a bank loan for your business or upcoming business. Most working lines of credit can be called due and payable for any reason.
-       Your company has some wealthy investors, and is successful.  Many times if it is successful your wealthy partners will try to cut you out and take over the company.  The old expression, “sue us” comes up, has with me, and you can’t afford the legal fees as the wealthy can.  If your company fails, your partners may sue you for mismanagement or fraud to recover losses, even though no such things occurred.  A personal experience.
-       Politics.   I was one of a few original employees who helped grow a company into one of the largest independent exploration and development oil/gas companies in the USA.  We went public in 1983 on the New York Stock Exchange.  Then, politics changed under President Reagan who favored using foreign oil and natural resources.  This killed the US independent producers and gave the big natural gas pipeline companies an opportunity to break contracts.  In the natural gas business we had “take or pay” contracts, which meant a price for the gas was established and companies committed to buying a certain amount.  For us this included contracts with the “big boys” like Northwest Pipeline, People’s Gas and Lone Star Gas down in Texas.   They refused to pay according to contract and told us if we sued for contract they could hold us off in court until we went bankrupt.  Once we started negotiating new contracts there was no bottom to pricing and our company, Energetics, Inc. went bankrupt.
-       You file international patent rights.  Big companies will skirt the rights or buy you out and then never pay you the contracted royalties. If you ever win in court, those large companies will have already made a ton of money from your product.  They wear you down.
-       You think you have a proprietary product. If it is successful a large company most likely will be right behind you with similar product and tons of advertising to drive you out of business.

I don’t mean to be negative, but knowledge of what happens, or could happen is very important.

Let’s look briefly at stock market highs.  Insanity in the markets continues with more foreign money pouring into American companies.  American companies appear to be the strongest in a weak world. These markets are like giants, the bigger they get without corrections, the harder they fall.  It is not “if” we are going to have a major correction in the markets, it is “when”.  We were due for a normal historical correction 3-4 years ago.   We are hitting new lows on the VIX (market volatility index), below 10, similar to 1999 and 2008 and see what happened then.  There is no sensible way to value most of the high profile companies.  Let’s take only one, Amazon.  Amazon is no more than a 21st Century Sears and Roebuck catalogue, and a fast distributor of retail goods.  Amazon has a price to earnings ratio in excess of 150 to 1, and retains earnings.  A price to earnings ratio means the number of years it will take you to get your money back if you bought the company.  In this specific illustration it would take you 150 years to get your money back and that is if they distributed all their earnings.  The only way to make any money on the stock is to try to find a bigger sucker than you to sell your stock to.  Right?  Okay, enough of this and I could go on all day regarding idiocy.  The stock markets are higher and more ridiculous than in 1929 and during the dot com bubble of the late 1990’s.

Now let’s look at retail stores in general, a great deal of the backbone of this country.  In the last couple blogs I mentioned that some of the top money managers are starting to look seriously at shorting REITS and funds that hold a lot of commercial/retail real estate.  Reasons for this are that demographics and buying habits are changing.  The millennials are quickly changing the landscape for many things and companies are not paying attention..  If you don’t keep up you are going to go out of business.  Millennials have certain commonalities that will change the way we live.  Some of these are:
-       Simpler way of life.  On-line retail buying, mass transit versus large car ownership, and technology driven.
-       Less social connection.  Again, technology driven with smaller computers and hand held devices.
-       Rent apartments versus buying real estate.  Apartments meant for convenience and close to shopping and hip restaurants and bars.  Don’t tie me down attitude.
-       Dress codes.  Very informal, gone the days of white shirts and ties except for urban center office legal and accounting.
-       Structured 8 to 5 jobs not desirable. Millennials want control and don’t want the sacrifice their parents and grandparents needed to endure.  The HB-1 working visa foreign guys and gals in the tech area live together, cat nap instead of getting a good solid 8 hours of sleep and will go 24/7 for the tech companies.

Currently, there are about 12 or more of the big box retailers who are in deep financial trouble, one of the worst is Sears.  Many of these companies make the mistake of selling off their best assets to stay alive.  Granted they have few options to stay alive when the creditors come knocking.  Thousands of small retailers are also closing their doors.  On line buying is where it is at.  Many retailers are trying for supplemental enticements to lure people into stores including music entertainment, food samples, etc.  In my viewpoint many deserve their demise, poorly run on the inside and lack a unique identity.  There is simply too much supply of product, and too many ways the customer can get their hands on it.

So much for this blog.  I hope it helps someone with thoughts.  I love to analyze companies.  In the 1980’s I owned a very respected private equity firm in Denver, L. R. Nicholson & Company.  We reviewed many proposals from start up companies to mergers and acquisitions.  Once this stuff is in your blood it never leaves.