Thursday, December 1, 2016

MONEY 108 - BUSINESS GAMES


THIS IS MY 108TH BLOG ON UNDERSTANDING MONEY TOOLS

In this blog I will comment on some of the games businesses use today, and then as usual make comment on some other issues, like the economy. It’s an eclectic blog!

As in most industries today there is greater supply of workforce than jobs available. Ironic that we want Globalization! The main reason, of course, is pay the employees less.  You see this conflictive reporting daily in the news; unemployment down, tremendous job situation.  94.6 million Americans not working!  You watch segments of the news and so many college graduates unable to find any work except minimum wage and still living at home with their parents.  Yes, student loans are over $1 trillion and without good paying jobs these college grads will never pay down their loans let alone want to get married and be able to afford a home.

I believe Donald Trump will be a good president and attempt to bring through badly needed changes. Will he get the old line in Congress and the Senate to go with him?  First off, lowering taxes should benefit all although in the short term raise our US debt.  The lowering of the highest corporate rate to 15% should help prevent companies from leaving the US.  Building new manufacturing plants here with incentives is very important. The reality is we can prevent companies from leaving and start producing more here, however new companies and renovation of existing plants will provide for more automated and robotic plants.  Technology will be needed but not a large labor force as we needed 20-30 years ago.

One common trend employers and human resource departments are using is requesting managers to low-ball employee evaluations.  This serves two purposes: 1) to keep employees on their toes and get them to work harder and better, and 2) leave justifications to terminate an employee so the employee has little legal recourse against the company.

Silicon Valley is screaming for more HB-1 workers (as we have discussed these are foreigners with working visas).  The tech companies are not that compassionate, they want cheaper employees.  It has been a while since I got the latest figures, but India was graduating 6 times the number of engineers that we were here in the USA, mostly in technology.  India has over 1 billion people, but the ratio of engineers to the population is still very high.  Our American companies will replace American workers at the drop of a hat.  They even go to the extent of sending people over to these countries and train to their specializations.  It is similar in the medical and pharmaceutical fields. Hospitals and drug stores hiring from Pakistan and India.  These people have to have attended schooling and then pass state boards?  For most, the schools they went to are not nearly as good as in the USA.  Secondly, what they do is go to a training school in the USA that teaches how to pass the boards.

I have been watching the news about fast food chains hiring more workers; most of these jobs are at minimum wage.  What is happening especially in the Southwest is that they are replacing current staff and hiring people who are bi-lingual in English and Spanish.  With the influx of people from Mexico and South America many who eat inexpensively at fast food restaurants the employees need to be able to communicate in both languages. The push for $15/hour wages. I see it just expediting the automation of fast food restaurants, corporations working leaner.

No matter who won the presidential election it didn’t really matter as I believe we have already started into a recession.  Americans just don’t realize it.  There has been a temporary bullish blip because Mr. Trump was elected.  Look at corporate earnings. Only a few companies are carrying the markets.  Wall Street controls the companies and it is all bottom line.  No long-term outlook.  Wall Street tells companies what they want and how to accomplish it; also, who to hire and in what positions for higher management, accounting firms and law firms.  The game now is for Wall Street to lower expectations in advance, and then announce a company has met or beaten expectations sending the price of the stock higher.  On average, corporate earnings haven’t increased since 2006 and yet the inflationary spiral has hit the stock markets and real estate the most.

Over the long term presidential decisions will benefit or hurt our country.  Interest rates are creeping up.  It is more likely the Feds will raise interest rates at long last this December and this is going to have a negative effect on bonds.  The longer-term effect of all the money we printed is coming to roost with inflation.  Raising interest rates will affect the world.  Our exports will be diminished; currency wars. As most noted, China just lowered their Yuan for it’s trading benefit.

When George W. Bush was elected we knew oil and gas was going to be the industry as Mr. Bush was going to protect the family assets. Oil prices went up significantly.  Similarly I am guessing Mr. Trump will protect the real estate industry.  Right now we are peaking with very high real estate prices in most of the populated areas in the country, especially those cities within a 100 miles of the oceans.  In real estate, know your buyers.  For foreign buyers of residential homes currently 27% are Chinese buying homes that average just under $1 million, and many are cash buyers.

Oil investments?  OPEC has just agreed to limit production.  My opinion is why invest in a product that has more supply than we will ever need?  The price can only go up because of cartel or futures trading manipulation, and that can give way at any point.  Too many oil-producing countries do not get along, and too many are in dire financial need to sell all the oil they can get to pay debt.  The IMF and Central Banks loved to get these countries into debt, then will force them to sell off assets to the wealthy to pay debt; Greece is a fine example of losing control of assets. The other problem I see here for unification of OPEC’s controls is that similar to the European Union there is far too great a disparity of country wealth to hold a unification together for very long.

So much for this blog!

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