Tuesday, December 25, 2012

MONEY 28 - GOLD/SILVER

Money readers take note +


THIS IS MY 28TH POST ON UNDERSTANDING MONEY TOOLS

Money, Money, Money. When we talk about money and investments many people today are bringing up the topic of investing in gold and silver.  Both of these metals have been around forever and both are commodities. The well thought of investments in precious minerals and precious stones are platinum, gold, silver and diamonds. Let’s address gold and silver briefly.

You and I can buy gold and silver directly from various sources or invest in them though specialty index funds on the stock market.

First, how is gold measured?  Gold is considered pure investment grade at 99.9% pure or 24 karat.  We also see “karat” spelled “carat” or just the abbreviation which most people understand, ct, after the amount of gold in an item.  Fashion jewelry is many times 18 ct, or 14 ct, or 10 ct.  This is a measurement of the amount of gold in the item.  Let’s use 14 ct, which is very common.  So, the item you have is 14 parts gold and 10 parts of another alloy.  14 ct is more durable and stronger than 24 ct and less costly because it is a fraction of pure gold. The weight and price are important. Gold is valued in “troy ounces”.

How do I buy gold?  The two most common ways for investing in gold is either buying gold coins or buying gold bullion. As with most gold coins the value is not in the coin, but in the gold, with very few exceptions. You may want to look at the US Eagle gold coin.

Let’s go off the track a bit here.  You see fashion gold jewelry and you want to buy it because gold has gone up and so has gold fashion jewelry.  Now, the jeweler presents you with white gold, rose gold and regular colored gold.  What is the difference? Gold is yellow color. As we noted, fashion jewelry is not pure gold and has something else mixed in.  To make white gold there is either silver or nickel added in.  Rose gold is attained by adding copper.

Now, back on track with gold.  Gold has for centuries been a medium for trade as well as a precious commodity to hedge currency loss as well as thought to hold value in case of economic emergency, inflation or catastrophe. Gold is a commodity and can move up and down rapidly in price  As we learned in a previous blog the United States Government used gold to back the US dollar until August, 1971.  At that time gold was priced about $40/ounce.  Then, the US went off the gold standard, and the US went to a “fiat” currency.  Gold continued to rise from that point, and kept up with inflation or better.  It went through a period of about 20 years without much movement in price. Nothing huge happened with the appreciation of gold until about 2003 and the price was approximately $365/ounce.  By 2005 gold was priced about $445/ounce. Then, what happened in the world?  Well, first the US was involved in two very expensive wars, Iraq and Afghanistan. We had gone from a balanced US budget to running up incredible deficits.  At that point the European Union looked financially strong.  The US started printing more money, diluting the US dollar. Now, we are doing even more devaluing of the dollar (QE1, QE2 and now QE3). Financial weakness was creeping into the European countries. China, India and Russia started buying a lot of gold. Where are we now?  As of this writing (12/18/2012) spot gold price is about $1,700/ounce.

China is the number one acquirer of investment grade gold, India buys more gold, but for jewelry.  In India a sign of wealth is gold worn.

Let’s talk silver.  The last US silver coin was minted in 1970. The US Mint began making gold and silver coins in 1986 for investors, the weight and purity of content guaranteed. Silver is actually a byproduct or other mining such as gold, copper and lead. Silver is also measured in ounces. With silver fashion jewelry there should be a stamp on the item showing purity such as 925, meaning over 90% pure silver.

The high price of silver over recent history happened in 1980 when the Hunt brothers from Texas attempted to control the market of the commodity and the price went up to about $50/ounce.  Then, the price plummeted to about $4.50/ounce and remained in the $5 range from 1993 until 2004-5, the same time gold started taking off. Silver hit another high in May,  2011 of about $48/ounce.  Today, it is steady at about $32.50/ounce.

Is gold going up?  Answer is who knows.  Is it a limited commodity or will more reserves be found?  The world had predicted we’d have run out of oil by now, but with new technology many more billions of oil have been proven.  Perhaps the same will happen with gold reserves, and then enters supply and demand.   With both silver and gold you have low production costs.  The actual cost of producing one ounce of gold, and adding in all corporate expenses like administration, marketing, shipping, etc. the total cost is only about $550-680/ounce, and yet it is selling in the market at $1,700.  Silver is even less. Silver runs about $1.25/ounce in mining, low as it is a byproduct, plus administration costs.  What other products do you find that can sell for 300% or more profit margin?

What are drawbacks to these investments? 
1)    Volatile price
2)    Many scam artists in the business, and loose controls
3)    Lack of liquidity unless you purchase gold/silver stocks
4)    Storage expense. If you buy out of Switzerland storage may cost you a half of one percent annually or more. Buy out of Hong Kong about one third of one percent annually. Yes, you could put it in a bank safety deposit box, if large enough.
5)    Gold and silver do not earn any return until sold, and you hope for a higher price than what you bought it for.

How do I buy? In tons of places.  Go with a reputable source.  Reputable sources typically do not charge a commission, but work on a “spread”.  This means when they sell to you they sell at a higher price than if they were buying from you.  This is similar to buying foreign currencies when you travel.

How about gold or silver stock?
1)    The stock may not run parallel to the price of the commodity because of corporate failings.
2)    A benefit is that you have liquidity.  Call your stockbroker or investment advisor and you can buy or sell immediately.
3)    With an index mutual fund you are spreading your risk amongst several companies.
4)    When buying a gold/silver mining stock the stock may be priced significantly higher than the resources and assets of the company.

How much gold should I hold as an investment in my portfolio?  Again, gold is a hedge against disaster.  Many advisors recommend in the range of 10% of your total investment assets.

When should I buy?  As gold and silver are very price fluctuating I would recommend buying on dips in price and on a varying schedule, either quarterly or monthly when you have extra money to invest.

To end here, I hope you learned a bit about gold and silver. Another precious metal is platinum, and the price of that has historically been higher than gold, however with the run up in gold platinum is priced at $1,610/ounce. With gold and silver there is little utility today except for investments and fashion jewelry.  Substitute materials have taken over in commercial products and dentistry.

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