Sunday, January 26, 2020

MONEY 183 - BUSINESS ADVICE


THIS IS MY 183RD BLOG ON UNDERSTANDING MONEY TOOLS
January, 2020

In this blog we are going to discuss practical business analysis that was derived from a close friend asking me to take the time for a two hour walk talking about his future in either teaching or consulting.

I want you to relate to my friend in your own way and then think things through using some of this information to advance your own endeavors.  Let me set the stage.  My friend started back to college at the age of 60; this is not uncommon these days.  His goal was to achieve an MBA in information technology, which he will attain come this May.  Because of the duration between his first college enrollment and going back to higher education, the schools he has attended have made him take many undergraduate courses again.  His total years is now 5.  At his age, he relishes his freedom and does not want to work 40-60 hours a week, nor for a big corporation which most likely will expect this. We have boiled his parameters down to either teaching or consulting.

First obstacle is age discrimination in the corporate field.  Everyone is looking at the fast, young, bright tech engineer who will stay with the company for years to come.  Many of the sharpest individuals I have met like this are either from Chinese or Asian Indian backgrounds.  My friend could teach on-line and age would not be a factor, whereas direct/people interaction could retard his hopes.

My friend who years past made money from “artists” like musicians and some of the early tech people, who never needed to finish college, were part of the “right-brained” creative mentality.  These days in tech it is the “left-brained” engineer who will prevail.  (Please refer to prior blogs as I covered the commonalities of both left and right-brained people.)

Now, we need to look at 5 years of college and what has been accomplished learning technology over this period of time.  Most everything except mental disciplines is outdated.  Technology is changing with exponential speed, what you learned last month may be dated this month.  The professors’ information teaching classes is dated!  This is why corporations are employing young, quick minded people, training them internally to their needs.

As my friend is a free, right brained, creative thinker, we talked about how important structure, principles and disciplines are.   I have read most of Tony Robbins books.  Tony is a life coach and author.  One thing I remember him saying is “don’t create a wheel, take the wheel and improve upon it.”

With that said, let’s talk about my friend consulting.  He said years back he was used to “winging it” and got away with it.  No longer.  You have to have structure and adhere to a winning game.  Let’s look at some principles:
-       Go out and read up on current successful people and business tactics.
-       Do research on target industries.
-       Narrow your market.  You “ain’t” going to get the big fish as big corporations deal with big consulting firms.  They won’t take risk.
-       Once you know your market and before trying to get an appointment you need to do thorough research on the company and the most likely individual in the company you will meet with.  You will waste your time if the target company does not have a “need or want” for your services.  You need to bring “benefit” to them, solving their needs or you have nothing to offer.
-       Next, first impressions are most important; a smile, a relationship to dress codes, the first one minute or less of dialogue is key.  If you miss on any of these you won’t make a sale to consult for them.  You need to “grab” their attention.  They need to relate to you.  You might try wording similar to, “Mr. Jones, I have researched and analyzed the issues and weaknesses within your company.  I “know” I can bring benefit to your company within 6 months adding an approximate $2 million to your bottom line.”  This has accomplished a few things: 1) You addressed Tom Jones as Mr. showing respect, 2) The wording is concise and took about 10 seconds, 3) It showed that you took enough interest in his company to do research, 4) It showed that hiring you as a consultant should bring value to the tune of $2 million within 6 months according to your analysis, and that figure should make Mr. Jones look great within his company, and 5) You transitioned Mr. Jones from an “intangible product” (IT) to a “tangible” (Money).  With your dialogue make the speed, tempo and loudness the same as the interviewer so he relates easier. 
-       In a business environment shake hands with both men and women while making eye contact.  If you are seated and someone joins the meeting always stand to shake hands.
-       Communication is everything!  If you can’t communicate with the interviewer in a fashion that they can easily understand, you have failed.  Don’t blame anyone but yourself.  Sales and money drive all companies.  Yes, you need product, but you need to make that sale as a consultant to both meet your own financial needs as well as benefiting the targeted company.
-       Respect the interviewer’s “space”, both for men and women.  If you are seated, sit straight.  If you lean back that could be interpreted as defensive or bored, leaning forward could be offensive or aggressive.
-       You need cash to start any company whether it is as a real estate agent, insurance broker or another field.  This is approximated at one year of living expenses plus what it will take for your business start-up.
-       The realization that everything takes longer than expected and costs more than expected.  Many companies do not move quickly, and sometimes need to have Board Members vote on decisions.
-       Beside age discrimination my friend is starting from behind because he does not have a successful track record with this new education.
-       Will my friend be meeting with a man or woman?  The species think differently.  Men are more visual and kinesthetic, a woman is more auditory.  Present to a man with more graphs, use discussion more with women.
-       In a meeting always ask the parameters of time frames including your first meeting so you cover all salient points.
-       Get your interviewer to talk about themselves, their interests and their company; not you doing all the talking.
-       Always do a quick summation of the meeting, so you know you have communicated.  If there exists a differing opinion, correct it on the spot.
-       Always do a follow up letter or these days text thanking the person and showing respect.  Take the lead and ask when you could schedule another meeting as hopefully you got enough information that you can now prove you can be a problem solver and bring value.
-       As in sports, keep the winning strategies, change the losing ones.  If your business plan and presentations aren’t working find out what needs changing.
-       With consulting always leave a carrot to go forward.  Contracts are not easy to get, you want that company to need you for a long-term forward.  Build that “annuity” for yourself.

I wish my friend only the best.

Remember that the gauge of success is measured by the speed of recovery from adversity we will all experience in our lifetime.

I hope you got some helpful ideas and “tools” from this blog.

Friday, January 17, 2020

MONEY 182 - EBITDA/MORE


THIS IS MY 182ND BLOG ON UNDERSTANDING MONEY TOOLS
January, 2020

In this blog/tutorial we are going to look at “Ebitda” and more.  This is very important for analysis of a company’s financial health, and perhaps the reasons for buying or not buying a company’s stock.  We are also going to use this and “more” to back up my long time premise that the US and world economies are living in a falsehood and are not healthy.

First, we have covered Ebitda in a prior blog.  It is a representation of a company’s financial reporting of “earnings”, “before” “interest” paid out, “taxes”, “depreciation” and “amortization” of goods and equipment; thus Ebitda. 

I recently had a good discussion and debate with a close friend over using this method of reporting, or not using it.  I am not for it.  Apparently, our government’s “Government Accounting Principles”  (GAP) is permitting this reporting publicly including the use with Wall Street numbers.  Ebitda is a company’s operating performance on an income statement not including two of the most important items, interest expense and taxes paid. Therefore it is not “net income”.  In past years we may have used “net earnings before taxes”.  The major component that skews numbers of earnings in the wrong direction is corporate interest on loans and bonds.  Corporate debt is currently at $15.5 trillion, a number we have never seen before.  The second important figure omitted in earnings is taxes, not just Federal taxes.  Mr Trump lowered the highest possible Federal corporate rate to 35%.

If you take many companies the numbers between operating profit (Ebitda) and net income they may be far different.  Operating income may show a company with a huge profit when in actuality they are losing money like crazy.  Prime examples may take you to Amazon, Uber and General Electric which pay little or nothing in taxes compared to revenue.  These large companies employ the best tax law firms and accounting firms to “play” with numbers.  This is one prime reason I believe in a “flat tax” for both individuals and corporations. It would even the playing field between the wealthy who can afford the top accountants and middle class workers.

Why is the government permitting this and what fears do I have?
-       Financial reporting in this manner makes buyers of stock more willing to buy into markets.
-       Companies can use this higher operating figure to leverage themselves by borrowing more money at low interest rates and do two things: issue more bonds getting themselves into more debt and using this borrowed money to buy back their own stock thus further raising the price.
-       If people view their stock portfolios at higher figures they can borrow against their stocks and stock funds up to about 50% of value, increasing debt and responsibilities.
-       When the perception that things are “rosie” in the economy people are more optimistic, thus they will buy more products and keep the economy rolling at about 2% growth.
-       With political elections coming up in about 10 months the Republicans will do everything to prevent a downturn in the economy and stock markets.  (And by the way, I am an independent voter who votes both parties.)

Now, a bit “more” to this blog.  Jim Rogers, the hedge fund and investment manager who I have followed since the late 1970’s came out publicly today with a scathing editorial about our economy that I agree with.  My old expression, “debt kills” is reaching astronomical figures.  Most countries around the world have dropped interest rates to nothing or negative and are printing money like crazy. Our government has no alternatives left than to print more money, and place a lot of it “off balance sheet”, thus you will not see this debt increasing our reported debt of $23.3 trillion.  Again, our banks are in trouble and it was recognized on about September 22nd of last year when the overnight “Repurchase Agreement” (REPO) rates shot up to 10% from the 2% norm.  Banks would not lend to each other so to meet capital requirements banks went to the last resort, our Federal Reserve.

With executive order Mr. Trump our Treasury Department in conjunction with the Federal Reserve have been placing tons of money into the banks and stock markets.  You can watch the irregular stock trading going on.  Since September 22nd this money has amounted to about $2.5 trillion and last week the government announced it will continue this off balance sheet spending for the next few months.  “OMG”, this is trillions of dollars to falsely pump up markets and keep us economically alive.  If you look at our most conservative stock index, the DOW, you will find that the price to earnings ratio has jumped from about 28:1 a couple months ago to a current 30.7:1.  All this tells you is that the price just keeps rising without corporate earnings increasing with relativity.  (The DOW average P/E should be 15:1.)

According to Jim Rogers it is not just the US.  Quote Mr. Rogers today, “the Bank of Japan is printing money to buy bonds and stock Exchange Traded Funds; the European Central Bank is mired in insane negative interests”,  “we and they will continue this “madness” as long as it is necessary”.  There is little that can be done as production and taxation can never repay debt.  At some point the people and buyers will say this Ponzi game is over and not buy the “junk”, meaning stocks and many currencies.

Permit me to include approximate current debt figures here in the US.  Since the Great Recession of 2008-2010 we have built an economy based upon “cheap money lending.”  This should concern everyone.
-       Reported US debt: $23.3 trillion
-       Non-reported US debt: ?, but trillions
-       Credit card debt: $1.5 trillion
-       Student loan debt: $1.6 trillion
-       Auto loan debt: $1.2 trillion
-       Home mortgage debt: $8.8 trillion
-       Corporate loan debt: $15 trillion
-       Lines of credit: ?

The strategy for many a corporation is leverage.  The theory we can borrow money at 4-10%, however our earnings are e.g. 12% is great, but what happens if we go into a strong recession or depression?  Revenue slips much faster than companies can reduce costs.  Company bonds are usually issued “short-term” up to 3 years, “mid-term” 5 to 10 years and “long term” beyond that.  The longer the term of the bond the higher the interest rate.  A company can reduce costs and terminate employees, but they can’t retire bonds unless they have cash on hand.  (By the way, company bonds normally have a “call” provision.  This means if they issued bonds yielding a high interest rate they can call the bond, pay it off, and refinance at a lower rate.  Newer bonds are at low rates of interest so companies may not be able to favorably refinance debt.)

I can’t say “I hope you enjoyed this blog”, but I hope you gained some knowledge and current information from it.