Wednesday, January 18, 2017

MONEY 112 - STUFF


THIS IS MY 112TH BLOG ON UNDERSTANDING MONEY TOOLS.

Let’s continue on a journey of “stuff” that might help you.  In blog 111 we discussed sales.  Let’s continue that for a second. (A prior blog covers sales tools more completely.)

I see sale’s people making a common mistake over and over again and that is in the direction of “what is a customer”.  The exact product is immaterial.  This seems like common sense, however I see this situation all too often.  Unless you have a “ready, willing and able” buyer you “ain’t going to make a sale and wasting time.  What is a ready buyer?  Someone who is ready or in the near term ready to buy the product or service.  What is a willing buyer?  Someone who is wanting or needing to make the purchase.  What is an able buyer?  Someone who has the money or another vehicle (a substitution for money acceptable to buyer) to buy.  Without these ingredients sale’s people are wasting their time.

Once these three things are in alignment it will be possible to make a sale.  Then, most people are close to buying, but are still placing more value in their money than the product.  The sale’s person needs to create more value in the product exceeding the value of the buyer’s money.  So you are taking the person from 48% negative to a 52%, or so, positive relationship, and then you have a sale.  Few people are ever 90-10 against a purchase or 90-10 for a “slam dunk” sale.

Let’s move on.  I get together with a friend to brainstorm everything from economics to education. This past week we discussed the world’s transformation into the exponentially advancing technology field, especially as to how it relates to sales.  This friend is going back to school for another degree, a master’s in communication in the technology world. People, educators and companies are trying to figure out selling to Generation X, and communication.  It is a big topic and educators are trying to figure this one out; product or service, then selecting a platform and communication/reaching out to the targeted audience.

Here is what is difficult to grasp.  The future is not bright for employing humans.  We have driverless cars, drones, and Watson, IBM’s genius computer. Computers can analyze more quickly than a human and come up with a more accurate diagnosis. This illustration was proven by Watson against MD doctors.  Robots can now self-code software and re-program other robots; you won’t need design engineers!  An idea for making money in the world of the masses; apps on phones.  There are apps for so many things today from music tuners to working out.

The essentials for success with an app are good product, especially unique or proprietary, then to attract the worldwide consumer who can’t live without it!  A good “platform” is essential.  Pricing needs to stay in the range of $.99.  The whole key is to attract a million people or more; exposure.  It adds up!  You are going to have development costs, so you need to run the numbers, and there is risk.

There is a very ubiquitous situation in the air, it is the unknown.  Mr. Trump wasn’t to win the presidential election, but he did.  Nationalism hails.  So very little makes any sense. I have given up on attempting to analyze the stock market. When Mr. Trump was elected stocks were to go down, and we had a Trump rally.  George Soros, the billionaire, is pretty smart when it comes to markets and it is said he lost $1 billion shorting the markets on a Trump victory.

People think our strong US dollar is great as it buys more imported goods, however on the other hand it hurts us and the world in several ways including third world countries paying back debt based on the dollar.  Our US exports are down about 6.8% as the foreign market is paying more for our manufactured goods.  These are dollars leaving the country and most likely will not come back.  I think if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in the future it will be temporary, as it will be counter productive for exports, our economy and other countries in the world.

When Mr. Obama came to office he inherited a $10.6 trillion US debt, it will be $20 trillion when he leaves office.  It is somewhat his fault with the decisions he made over the last 8 years, and in ways not as we have a government that should act as a team and it has not. Wars are so costly and we have been in the Middle East now for 16 years with no end in site, with even a larger mess at hand. Hegemony costs money, and we have politicians who apparently never studied the Empires who tried to expand controls like the Greeks, Romans, French, English, and Germans with Hitler.  Cause and effect!  Whether a “hot” war or “cold war” it will take you financially down the drain.

There is an inverse relationship between any debt and growth.  I am afraid the rally around Mr. Trump will die shortly after the inauguration, the same as it did after Ronald Reagan came into office. The US economy is like a huge ship and it can’t be turned quickly.  We are now proposing to pass an extension of the debt with another $9 trillion.  Corporate tax cuts will pay off long term, however short term it will leave a larger deficit.  We will have to extend tax incentives for large companies to remain here and build new manufacturing plants.

Here is one example of the hyped news playing us.  Mr. Trump is taking credit for keeping a Ford manufacturing plant in the US.  Let’s take a look at reality.  The new plant will cost $700 million for mainly capital items such as buildings and manufacturing equipment, versus expensed.  They are estimating the creation of only 700 jobs; that is one job for every million dollars.  On a positive note, it will take workers to build the plant, but once operating it will be robotic and automated.  The US, and I am sure the state, will provide TIF, tax incentive funding, which means Ford will shelter net income for years without paying taxes.

China has lowered its currency, the Yuan, even more to make their products more marketable.  President Xi, who is a great proponent of Globalization needs it.  He needs to export a ton of manufactured goods to keep his economy afloat.  He is currently in Davos, Switzerland, along with the world’s big power players pitching China, Globalization and trade.  The world’s elite want Globalization.  It is a great vehicle to further low taxes, skirt tariffs while exploiting the environment and worker’s rights and gaining global control.

Here are some figures to look at for long-term and investment consideration.  New auto sales were down 42% 2016 versus 2015.  Computer sales for another year went down about 6%.  Even with advanced new technology, the old computer is still fine and more people will use their phones in a similar fashion.  Popularity is for smaller, more portable devices.  How do we sell to Generation X and younger Millennials?

Europe is in deep financial straights.  Germany is holding the Union   together, however economically they rest upon exports of manufactured goods. If that slows, they fail.  I predict the immigration we have seen over the past few years, mainly created by the US and Britain in wars, will be the downfall for the European Union. As in the US and around the world, in the long term we will not need more workers and the result will be millions of people being subsidized by governments.  Also, immigrants typically do not integrate into society well, which makes it more difficult. 

Finland is experimenting with substituting a monthly payment of 800 Euros to citizens rather than pay benefits.  Some day here and around the world I believe the largest corporations are going to have to set up trusts to do something similar in a grander scale as there will be less need for human beings!